Daily Crude Oil Analsys

WTI Crude Report for trading 1/25

WTI Crude intraday trade plan 

(For subscriptions to this and intraday trade levels email me bizintinc@gmail.com)

Jan 25th 2017 Updated at 1:41 am EST on Jan 25th 2017

WTI Crude in a sideways range since the start of December and therefore direction is extremely difficult to read day to day in this sideways trend. Earlier yesterday, we initially topped 10 ticks from initial resistance at 53.40/53.50 and about 2 ticks from my upper target which was 53.59 called at the pit open. Earlier we bottomed exactly at good support at 52.75~52.65. I declared my long bias early despite the grinding move up so if you had tried longs from my call made at around 52.87 and stayed long, this trade worked perfectly as we shot back up to that initial resistance at above 5340/50 and topped exactly here within 2 ticks of my upper target.

The API numbers while not as bearish as last week showed an increase in inventory. Read the news story below for a clear picture on the exact figures. Volatility will mark the day at around 10.30 am EST, so make sure you are entering the market and have appropriate stops around this timeframe.

For the upside forecast today, holding above 53.05~53.00 re-targets first resistance at 53.40~50 which should still be key to direction and if you are shorting here blindly, you need stops above 5370. Be ready to reverse and buy a break above minor short-term trend line resistance at 53.70. A break sustained break higher targets 53.90 then strong resistance at 54.30~54.40. Try shorts with stops above 54.75.

WTI Crude holding below 53.05~53.00 retests good support at 52.75~52.65 has been working but further losses today re-target 52.30~53.20, perhaps as far as 52.10~52.00 before last week’s low at 51.81~51.72. Try longs with stops below 51.50. A break lower however is a sell signal targeting 51.20 & 50.85~50.80.

Pivots for Jan 25th, 2017

R3=53.63 | R2=53.35| R1=53.21 <-> S1=52.89 | S2=52.74 | S3=52.48

WTI Daily Chart  


Crude mixed in Asia as API figures curb output cut enthusiasm (A Reuters story)

Jan 25th 2017 Updated at 1:41 am EST on Jan 25th 2017

Crude prices were mixed in Asia on Wednesday as industry data on U.S. inventories put a dampener on recent upbeat sentiment related to global production cuts. Global benchmark Brent crude rose 0.16% on London’s Intercontinental Exchange to $55.29 a barrel, while U.S. crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.36% to $52.99 a barrel. Late on Tuesday figures showed U.S. crude stocks rose 2.9 million barrels at the end of last week, more than expected, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) released Tuesday showed. API also said gasoline stocks rose 4.8 million barrels and distillate supplies gained 2.0 million barrels with supplies at the Cushing, Oklahoma, oil hub down 100,000 barrels at the end of last week.

Figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report are due at 10:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday. The official EIA figures are expected to show a build of about 2.8 million barrels. Crude prices have mostly held gains this week on widespread agreement a coordinated pact between OPEC and non-OPEC nations to trim 1.8 million barrels-per-day (bpd) from global output is working as well as dips in the dollar index to seven-week lows that benefit buyers in currencies other than greenbacks. Futures have been trading in a narrow range around the low $50s over the past month as sentiment in oil markets has been torn between expectations of a rebound in U.S. shale production and hopes that oversupply may be curbed by output cuts announced by major global producers.

Still, concerns over the global trade regime weigh on the crude markets for demand prospects after President Donald Trump addressed U.S. manufacturing executives on Monday and repeated a promise to impose a border tax on firms that import products into the United States after moving American factories overseas.

Trump also said Sunday he would start talks with Mexico and Canada to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).




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