Daily Crude Oil Analsys

WTI Crude Report for 1/5/2017

WTI Crude intraday trade plan (Jan 5th 2017 Updated at 9:04 pm EST on Jan 4th 2017)

In the WTI Crude report for yesterday, I’d written:..initial Fibonacci support at 52.20~52.10 is the key to price direction. Holding here allows a recovery to minor resistance at 52.80~52.90 but expect stronger resistance at 53.25~53.35. Gains are likely to be limited & we could see a high for the day here.  Well, we held initial Fibonacci support at 52.20~52.10 perfectly and after the API report which is printed below, have topped at 53.42 and have pulled back to 53.13 as I write overnight.

American Petroleum Institute (API) Inventory numbers released at 4:35 pm on 1/4/2017.

CRUDE -7.4mb (Draw – Bullish)  GASOLINE +4.25mb  (Build – Bearish)

DISTILLATES +5.24mb  (Build – Bearish) CUSHING +0.482mb (Build – Neurtral)

WTI Crude has topped almost exactly at strong resistance at 53.25~53.35, and in the Globex session has tagged 53.42. I would likely attempt shorts with stops above 53.85. If you get taken out on the stop before profit taking and we trade above 53.95, it is time to reverse your position as the outlook and sentiment turns more positive, targeting the late December high at 54.37 and the earlier December high at 54.50. 

Failure to beat strong resistance at or right above 53.25~53.35 will target minor support at 52.80~52.90 then the most important support of the day at 52.20~52.10 for some profit taking on our shorts from 53.25~53.35. A sustained break below the October high at 51.93 is a sell signal targeting 51.55~51.50 then 5125, perhaps as far as 50.90~5080. If we lose more ground to a bearish EIA inventory build report we will run into good short term support at 5030~50.20.

Pivots for Jan 5th, 2017 – R3=54.31 | R2=53.75| R1=53.42 <-> S1=52.76 | S2=52.43 | S3=51.87

WTI Crude Daily Chart


Inventory related news (Jan 5th 2017 Updated at 9:20 pm EST on Jan 4th 2017)

The API said late Wednesday that its own data for the week showed a 7.4- million-barrel decrease in crude supplies, a 4.3-million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks and a 5.2-million-barrel increase in distillate inventories, according to a market participant. Estimates from various analyst groups are presented below:



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