Forecast on Index Futures

ES, YM & GC forecast for 12/13/2016

Emini S&P topped less than 2 points from 2272/74. We bottomed 3 points above 2249 for a recovery to 2254/55 but not as far as 2260/61.

Today’s Analysis

13 December 2016 Updated at 10.32 pm on 12 Dec 2016

Emini S&P too early to call a top without further evidence. Obviously in such severely overbought conditions a correction is overdue but shorts are still risky. Good support at 2249/46 should be key to direction. Holding here keeps bulls in control for a bounce to 2254/55 & 2260/61 before the 2070 high. On further gains this week look for 2272/74, 2284/85, 2296/99, 2305/07. 

A break below 2245 is more negative in the short term targeting 2240 & strong support at 2236/34. Longs need stops below 2229 for 2224.

Levels: R3= 2263.50 | R2=2258.00 | R1= 2254.75 || S1= 2248.00 | S2=2244.50 |S3=2239.00

Daily Chart for ES

es-daily-12-13-2016

Emini Dow YM hit 19876 then saw profit taking to 19751.

Today’s Analysis

13 December 2016 Updated at 10.32 pm on 12 Dec 2016

Above 19820/825 could re-target the new all time high at 19876 yesterday. Further gains cannot be ruled out & could target 19900/910, perhaps as far as 20110/120 & 20320/330 this week.

Emini Dow YM remains severely overbought and in need of correction but shorts are still risky. Downside could still be limited. Below 19751 look for a test of support at 19690/680.Try longs with stops below 19655. Further losses risk a slide to 19625/615 then a buying opportunity at 19580/570, with stops below 19530.

ym-daily-12-13-2016

Gold sold off again to 1152/51 but managed a strong recovery. We are severely oversold on the weekly chart & I have been waiting patiently for a buy signal.  This is as good a chance as any to look for the end of this correction. Try longs with stops below 1149.

Today’s Analysis

13 December 2016 Updated at 10.32 pm on 12 Dec 2016

Try longs in the low 1160 area with stops below 1149. A break lower however continues the 4 month bear trend to target 1147/46 then 1140/39.

Gold could have bottomed yesterday & we could in fact start the next leg higher in the new bull trend. It is possible that the first 6 months of 2016 was the first leg in a new bull trend & this is the first major correction. If the correction has just ended we are ready for a bigger leg higher in to 2017. So it is a big opportunity with extremely low risk as we stop below yesterday’s low. Above 1165 will target initial  resistance at 1170/71. We could pause here but further gains target stronger resistance at 1178/80 & the main challenge for bulls today. A short term top is possible but shorts are more risky now. If you try, for a quick turn, use a stop above 1185. Be ready to buy a break above to targets 1191 & strong resistance at 1194/96. 

Levels to watch: R3= 1167.5 | R2=1165.1 | R1= 1163.9 || S1= 1160.7 | S2=1159.3 |S3=1156.8

gc-daily-12-13-2016

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