Daily Crude Oil Analsys

WTI Crude analysis & trade plan

WTI Crude intraday trade plan

Dec 8th 2016 Updated at 10:15 pm EST on Dec 7th 2016

For Tuesday Dec 7th I’d written “WTI Crude is likely to dip below 50.70~50.60 to target the best support for today at 50.10~50.00. A bounce from here is very likely but if I was long from here, I’d place some stops about 30 tics wide say at 49.70”. Need I say more? I had traders in my ScreenShare who use my report took shorts at 51.18 in the early a.m. today and ran this down well into the low 50’s print!

For the upside story today which isn’t looking too strong, initial resistance is now at 50.00~50.10 but above here we aim for 50.60~50.70. In the unlikely event that we head out bullish out of the gate we head to 51.05~5130 initially and then as far as 51.55~51.60. Continuing higher on the unwinding of oversold conditions, I’d seek out 51.80 before that band of resistance again at 51.90~52.30. A 2-day close above at the very least is required to confirm a breakout, but it is likely to be volatile. This would be a big buy signal longer term. Initial targets are 53.15/53.10, 53.50, 53.85/53.90, 54.10/15.

WTI Crude testing support at 50.10~50.00 and holding above the 49.70 stop as expected. However I am not seeing a bounce in the Globex session despite short-term oversold conditions and it does look like we will continue lower today. If I was trading this with the trend which I usually do, I’d be exiting any longs taken and hold on to shorts as long as we hold below 50.20 prince print to target 49.60~49.50 initially and then some minor support at 49.15~49.05. I see some reasonably strong support at 48.60~48.50 and incidentally a good buying opportunity where we will perhaps reverse course for trading on Thursday. 

Pivots for Dec 8th, 2016

R3=50.76 | R2=50.37| R1=50.13 <-> S1=49.65 | S2=49.41 | S3=49.02

WTI Crude Daily Chart Analysis


News in early Asian trading

Dec 8th 2016 Updated at 10:18 pm EST on Dec 7th 2016

Oil prices edged up on Thursday, supported by a weaker dollar ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and by a draw down in U.S. crude stocks. International Brent crude futures were trading up 18 cents, or 0.34 percent, at $53.18 a barrel at 0116 GMT. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices edged up 29 cents, or 0.58 percent to $50.06 a barrel. Crude oil inventories in the United States dropped 2.4 million barrels in the week that ended on Dec. 2, compared with analyst expectations for a draw of 1 million barrels.

But stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. crude futures, increased by a hefty 3.8 million barrels last week, the most since 2009, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Oil prices have been supported since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia reached a landmark agreement last week to cut production to erode a global supply overhang and prop up prices.

The U.S. dollar index fell as Treasury bond yields eased and as investors eye next week’s Fed meeting. A weak dollar makes dollar-denominated oil less expensive for importing countries. But doubts remain over whether OPEC will be able to comply with output cuts and whether those curbs will be enough to re-balance markets. OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will meet again this weekend in Austria’s capital to discuss the details of last week’s agreement, which aims at an overall reduction in output of around 1.5 million barrels a day.


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