Daily Crude Oil Analsys

Oil analysis on the eve of OPEC news

WTI Crude intraday trade plan

Nov 30th 2016 Updated at 10:09 pm on Nov 29th 2016 EST

For Tue, Nov 29th I’d written – “While the trend remains bearish below 46.60, we will easily target 46.10~46.00 into initial support. Continuing lower I’d look for 45.70~45.65 and making an entry to the long side on such a slide, too early and a tad bit too risky. If we continue to slide further which could only be triggered by a very bearish API inventory estimate after the close tomorrow I’d be looking for 45.35~45.25 and then at 44.90~44.80.”.  We failed to hold 46.60 and sold off to 44.82 and right between the 10 tic range I called between 44.90~44.80!

For the upside forecast today for we are trying short term recovery and are holding above 4550 as I write this. For starters we target initial resistance at 45.85~45.90. While I believe that in the Globex and ahead of news from the OPEC meeting that gains are likely to be limited, trading above initial resistance will have us going to 46.25 and then run into a wall of resistance at 46.45~46.55. Again, from my read, this is the best chance of a HOD print and if you’re attempting shorts from here, gives your stops enough breathing room into say, 47.00.

While the trend remains bearish holding below 45.40 we risk a retest of yesterday’s low of 44.90~44.80. Breaking into this region makes the outlook negative in the longer term and sell stops can gather some momentum to test trend line support at 44.50. A break below here is a confirmation of that sell signal & will have us heading to 44.30 initially and then 43.80~43.70 before the 43.00~42.95 and possible LOD.

Cam Pivots for Nov 30th, 2016

R3=46.06 | R2=45.68 | R1=45.45 <-> S1=45.01 | S2=44.78 | S3=44.41

WTI Crude Daily Chart Analysis

cl-daily-11-30-16

News & Analysis with a focus on API inventory and Analyst estimates

U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to show an increase in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts and traders by The Wall Street Journal. Estimates from 11 analysts and traders surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have increased by 100,000 barrels, on average, in the week ended Nov. 25. Five analysts expect stockpiles to rise and six expect them to decline. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 3 million barrels. The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EST Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to show an increase of 1 million barrels on average, according to analysts. Two analysts expect gasoline stockpiles to fall, eight expect them to rise and one expects no change. Estimates range from a fall of 1.9 million barrels to an increase of 2.6 million barrels. Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to increase by 1 million barrels. Nine analysts expect stockpiles to increase and two expect them to decrease. Forecasts range from a decline of 2 million barrels to a rise of 3.5 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen rising 0.8 percentage point to 91.6% of capacity, based on EIA data. Seven analysts expect a rise, one expects a decline and one expects no change. Two didn’t report expectations. Forecasts range from a decrease of 0.7 point to an increase of 2 points.  The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the week showed a 700,000-barrel decrease in crude supplies, a 3.3-million-barrel increase in gasoline stocks and a 2.2-million-barrel increase in distillate inventories, according to a market participant.

Analyst

Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Citi Futures 1.5 1.5 1 1
Commodity Research Group 2.2 1 0.5 -0.7
Confluence Investment Management -1.5 2.5 3.5 2
Energy Management Institute 1.9 1.6 1 0.9
First Standard Financial -0.35 -1.9 1.1
Frost & Sullivan 2 -1 1.5 0.5
IAF Advisors -1.5 0 1.5
Mizuho -1 1.5 -0.5 0
Price Futures Group -3 1 -2 1
Ritterbusch and Associates 3 2 2.8 1.8
Schneider Electric -1.8 2.6 0.9 0.4
AVERAGE 0.1 1 1 0.8

 

 

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