Nov 28th 2016 Updated at 12:15 am EST
For Friday, Nov 25th I’d written – “Initial support now sits at 47.20 and bulls need to protect this price area in order not to cede control to the other side. If we are unable to hold this region of support, I’d be looking for 46.80~46.70 as secondary levels of support and excellent support in the 46.15~46.05 area. Losing control here on thin volume trading may have use looking initially at 45.65 and then on to 45.35~45.25 which form previous support areas and very strong”. I invite you to take a close look at where we bottomed after the Globex open today, exactly 11 tics to 45.14 and then have bounced!
For the upside forecast today which looks bleak as I write this (despite the recovery to the 89 EMA forming in the 45.85), I would consider any meaningful recovery to become a selling opportunity with initial resistance at 46.40~46.50. If the bulls show up with a rebel contingent to defend prices in this area we could continue higher to 46.90~47.00 and any gains above here into 47.20~47.30 would make a bargain selling point. Not a very solid upside forecast for today, given that the sentiment in general has shifted to the downside ahead of the OPEC showdown planned for later this week.
We broke 47.40~47.30 for a nice sell signal as I had called on Friday. We started out with holding the initial support at 46.80~46.70 region and continuing on to secondary support in the 46.15~46.05 area. For today, outlook remains a bit negative and it is likely that we continue into oversold territory this week. I see a nice region of support now forming in the 45.70~45.65 narrow range but would be hesitant to attempt longs here as it is too early in the slip-n-slide ride to try and reverse in anticipation of a potential reversal. Like my forecast Friday which was about a full 100-tics higher, for today, if we continued selling we would initially target 45.35~45.25 region and if that did not hold as it did in the Globex today, look for 44.90~44.80. Selling below here on good volume although seemingly unlikely for Monday, November 28, 2016 will have us testing the 200 DMA at 44.30~44.25 easily.
Cam Pivots for Nov 28th, 2016
R3=47.63 | R2=46.82 | R1=46.39 <-> S1=45.53 | S2=45.10 | S3=44.39
News & Analysis with a focus on trading in Asia
Nov 28th 2016 Updated at 12:15 am EST
Crude oil prices rebounded in Asia on Monday as investors bet nervously on a a down-to-the-wire decision by OPEC to curb output as proposed. U.S. crude oil prices rose 0.24% to $46.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark Brent futures gained 0.29% to $48.38 a barrel. Last week, oil prices fell sharply on Friday amid uncertainty over whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can reach an agreement to cut production and prop up markets.
Doubts over whether major global exporters will be able to reach an agreement on November 30 to rein in output also kept investors on the sidelines. OPEC is to hold a meeting in Vienna on Wednesday aimed at finalizing the details of a proposed output cut, which it is hoped will reduce a global supply glut that has pressured oil prices lower for more than two years. The producer cartel is attempting to get its 14 member states, along with non-OPEC member Russia, to implement coordinated production cuts. Saudi Arabian officials declined to have a pre-meeting with non-OPEC members last week ahead of their own agreement stating that such a meeting would not achieve any meaningful results. Crude faded on this story and lost some ground heading into the end of the week and in early Globex trading earlier today.
Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic, with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb production. Most analysts believe that some form of consensus will be reached, but doubts remain over whether it will be enough to support the market.
WTI Crude Weekly Chart Analysis