Daily Crude Oil Analsys

WTI Analysis & Trade Ideas for 11/23

WTI Crude Trade Plan (Use the colored sections below for trade entry/exit levels)

Nov 23rd 2016 Updated at 11:23 pm EST on Nov 22nd 2016

For Tuesday, Nov 22nd, I’d written for the January contract “…Initial support now moves to between 48.90~48.99. The early morning could perhaps trigger s a small pullback to 48.55~48.50. On some profit taking, we may land up liquidating contracts in decent volume into the 47.90~47.80 price area initially and if profit taking becomes the norm for value seekers, the most I see this price action draw this value down is about the 47.30 area”.  We ticked exactly 13 tics lower for the day from this forecast to 47.17 and stalled. The outlook remains positive from longs being taken from these low prints today and price action is expected to be volatile at the 10.30 am time when EIA’s inventory levels are announced.

For the upside forecast today, the price outlook is positive if we hold above support which is now in the 47.80~47.70 region. On a move, up in the Globex from Asian or European trading of Brent, we would initially target 48.60 & then on to initial resistance in the 10-point spread area of 48.95~4905.  Trading above here and over 49.20 confirms the bull trend and will likely tag 49.60 and then on to 49.95. If we grind up further, taking on the 50-handle isn’t out of question and we may crest at 50.30 for a EOD price print.

Failure to hold above good support at 47.80~47.70 sees a retest of that buying opportunity from yesterday at 47.40~47.30. If buyers cannot sustain prices at these levels resulting from an unlikely extreme bearish inventory report for Crude Oil & products, we may move quickly to 47.00 and continued selling will then point to earlier support levels at 46.50~46.40 area initially followed by 46.15~46.05 if the bulls elect to sit this one out entirely.

Cam Pivots for Nov 23rd, 2016

R3=49.31 | R2=48.65 | R1=48.26 <-> S1=47.45 | S2=47.09 | S3=46.43

News & Analysis with a focus on US early Inventory recap

Nov 23rd 2016 Updated at 11:33 pm EST on Nov 22nd 2016

A survey of analysts polled late Tuesday showed varying results on the DOE’s actual data due at 10.30 a.m. EST.  Estimates from 11 analysts and traders surveyed is shown below:

Analyst Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital 2.3 0.9 1.4 0.9
Citi Futures 1.5 1.5 -1 1
Commodity Research Group 1.2 -1.1 1.2 0.5
Confluence Investment Management -0.5 2.5 -1 0.5
Energy Management Institute 2.2 1.7 -1 0.8
Frost & Sullivan -1.5 1.5 -1 0.5
IAF Advisors -0.5 0.5 0
Mizuho 1 0.5 -1 0
Price Futures Group -2 -2 -2 1
Ritterbusch and Associates 2.6 2.2 -2.1 1
Tradition Energy 3.5 1.5 1 -0.5
AVERAGE 0.8 0.9 -0.7 0.5

Oil prices pulled back some earlier today as the market continued to be influenced by stories related to the meeting of OPEC members in Vienna on Nov. 30. Light, sweet crude for January delivery settled down 21 cents, or 0.4%, at $48.03 a barrel. Prices scaled back after trading at a new three-week high, printing as high as $49.20 earlier in the session. Brent, the global benchmark, settled +22 cents, or 0.4%, to $49.12 a barrel.

A Nigerian delegate apparently told WSJ reporters on the scene that sticking points remain, such as discrepancies between independent data on production used by the group and members’ own disclosures and Iran’s plans to boost output, which have scuttled past efforts to reach a deal. A history of failing to come to a production agreement has made some analysts skeptical of comments from OPEC officials on Tuesday.

WTI Crude Daily Chart Analysis



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