Forecast on Index Futures

Emini S&P intraday trade plan

Nov 22nd 2016 Updated at 11:20 pm EST on Nov 21st 2016

For trade guidance for today, I’d written “While taking out 2189~2190.50 remains the biggest objective for the ES bulls, I have no reason to believe we have any of the bearish sentiments in play. While it is a nice gradual and teasing approach to these highs, it is very likely we tag and take this out this week.” We took that all-time high out today, and are treading higher as I write this!

On the downside inability by market participants to take out 2185 will make us revisit 2177/76 initially and then 2171/70. If we take out the early week lows from last week at 2168, we would risk sliding to 2162 and only an overwhelming group of bearish participants can likely take us below here to target 2155 initially and then 2150~2148. Anything below here and I would be seeking long positions.

For the upside forecast levels ES has made it through the important all time high 2189/2191.50 as hoped as we reach 1 point below the 2204/05 target. For tomorrow, I expect us to grind upwards in a very slow boring crawl as shorts are stopped, one by one. The next levels remain at 2212 as I’ve reported in the past few days.

Cam Pivots for Nov 22nd, 2016

R3=2204.50 | R2=2199.25 || R1=2197.00 | S1=2189.50 || S2=2186.25| S3= 2180.00

News related to Asian Markets in the Globex Session

Nov 22nd 2016 Updated at 11:20 pm EST on Nov 21st 2016

Asian stocks rose to one-week highs, helped by solid overnight gains on Wall Street, though investors were wary of chasing prices higher until President-elect Donald Trump picks his economic team. Oil extended gains. Crude oil climbed in Asian trading with U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up 1 percent as the dollar pulled back and expectations of production cuts grew. Prices surged 4 percent to a three-week high on Monday, after comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin raised hopes that producer countries will reach a deal at a meeting next week to limit output. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 1.3 percent, pulled up by a 1.3 percent rally in Australian shares. Korean shares and Hong Kong stocks rose 0.9 and 1.3 percent each. European stocks were also expected to open higher with gains seen around 0.5 percent for key markets.

Trump met some officials and outlined plans for his first day in office on Monday, including withdrawing from the TPP Asia-Pacific free trade accord and investigating abuses of work visa programs. Such actions may lead to retaliation by trade partners such as China and could potentially derail markets, noted the head of public policy at bond giant PIMCO.

But for now, expectations that Trump’s administration will adopt expansionary fiscal policies have sent U.S. stocks to a record high, while a belief that such policies would fuel inflation and lead to higher interest rates pushed up bond yields and strengthened the dollar. On Monday, U.S. stocks closed at a record high and European markets moved higher. Investors in Japanese stocks appeared unfazed by Tuesday’s e earthquake in northern Japan. The Nikkei average was broadly steady and the yen ticked up a shade against the U.S. dollar, although still near the five-month low hit earlier in the session. Trading volume was generally low ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, with expectations of a U.S rate increase next month already priced in by markets. The dollar, which has rallied over 5 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies since Trump’s victory, consolidated its gains.

The dollar’s mild weakness propped up gold prices with spot gold up 0.3 percent at $1217.70 per ounce. Gold prices have fallen 10 percent since the U.S. election outcome. It also helped emerging market currencies trim some losses after a recent battering. The Chinese yuan rebounded from a near 8-1/2 low hit on Monday.With markets moving higher, volatility indicators receded. The CBOE Volatility Index, a so-called “fear gauge”, fell 3.4 percent. 

Emini S&P (ES) Weekly Chart Analysis

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