WTI Crude Trade Plan (Read this section carefully for trade entry/exit suggestions)
Nov 22nd 2016 Updated at 11:33 pm EST on Nov 21st 2016
For Mon, Nov 21st, I’d written for the January contract “…For the upside forecast today, we have gapped higher and the lows here have converted Friday’s resistance to support. Holding above 46.60~46.70 for keeps the short-term outlook positive & targets quite strong resistance at 47.50~47.60. A break above that 47.50~47.60 level on good volume and a close above there changes us to a good buy signal even with overbought conditions prevailing. From here we could quite easily accomplish 48.50~48.60 to 48.80”. We ticked higher into the close and have ticked about 50 cents higher from the close at 48.24 exactly to that range and are at 48.73 as I write this report.
For the upside forecast today, initial resistance sits at 4890~48.99 and shorts will appear to be the counter trender’s worst nightmare. We have tagged a high of 48.98 as I write this and breaking above 49.20 almost statistically guarantees 49.50~49.60 initially and with strong volume up to 49.90~95 on the way to 50.30. The goal of bullish participants appears now to keep the price for crude oil above 50 heading into the Nov 30th OPEC meeting.
Initial support now moves to where we are presently trading which is between 48.90~48.99. The early morning could perhaps trigger s a small pullback to 48.55~48.50 but in this bull trend, the downside appears to be limited. On some profit taking, we may land up liquidating contracts in decent volume into the 47.90~47.80 price area initially and if profit taking becomes the norm for value seekers, the maximum I see this price action draw this down is to the 47.40~47.30 area or about.
Cam Pivots for Nov 22st, 2016
R3=49.34 | R2=48.35 | R1=48.56 <-> S1=47.98 | S2=47.69 | S3=47.20
News & Analysis with a focus on Asia & OPEC buzz
Nov 22nd 2016 Updated at 11:33 pm EST on Nov 21s 2016
OPEC experts appear to have made some progress on the first day of a two-day meeting to nail down details of their plan to cut oil output, OPEC sources said on Monday, with some expressing optimism about the prospect of a final deal. The second meeting of the High-Level Committee began at 0930 GMT (04:30 a.m. ET). The committee is a technical body comprised mainly of OPEC governors and national representatives – officials who report to their respective ministers. Oil prices rose to their highest level since late October on Tuesday as the market priced in an expected output cut led by producer cartel OPEC, but analysts warned that a failure to agree a cut could lead to a deepening supply glut by early 2017.
International Brent crude oil futures rose as high as $49.63 a barrel on Tuesday, up 1.5 percent from the last settlement and the highest since Oct. 31. Brent was trading at $49.58 per barrel at 0525 GMT, up 68 cents, or 1.4 percent. WTI crude futures were up 69 cents, or 1.4 percent, at $48.93 a barrel.
OPEC is trying by Nov. 30 to bring its 14 member states and non-OPEC producer Russia to agree on a coordinated production cut to prop up the market by bringing production into line with consumption.
WTI Crude Daily Chart Analysis