Forecast on Index Futures

Emini S&P trade plan & analysis

Emini S&P Analysis & trade plan

Nov 21st 2016 Updated at 11:20 pm EST on Nov 20th 2016

While taking out 2189~2190.50 remains the biggest objective for the ES bulls, I have no reason to believe we have any of the bearish sentiments in play. While it is a nice gradual and teasing approach to these highs, it is very likely we tag and take this out this week.

On the downside inability by market participants to take out 2185 will make us revisit 2177/76 initially and then 2171/70. If we take out the early week lows from last week at 2168, we would risk sliding to 2162 and only an overwhelming group of bearish participants can likely take us below here to target 2155 initially and then 2150~2148. Anything below here and I would be seeking long positions.

For the upside forecast levels we are at a 2-day high near 2185 but I reiterate that the level most important yet seemingly elusive to this market is the all-time high 2189~2191.50. Closing above here despite any short-term bearish news would sow the seeds of the next leg higher next week in the longer-term bull trend. Targets: 2197/99, 2204/05 & 2211/12.

Cam Pivots for Nov 21st, 2016

R3=2190.50 | R2=2188.00 || R1=2183.25 | S1=2177.75 || S2=2175| S3= 2170.50

News related to Asian Markets in the Globex Session

Nov 21st 2016 Updated at 11:20 pm EST on Nov 20th 2016

Chinese shares rallied Monday, leading gains in most other Asian markets higher as Beijing guided the yuan lower again, extending a decline that has picked up pace since Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory. The Shanghai Composite Index leaped 1.1 percent to 3,227.48 while Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 0.5 percent to 18,055.23. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.1 percent to 1,973.75 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.5 percent to 22,459.67. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.1 percent to 5,3567.80. Taiwan’s benchmarks rose but those in Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines sagged.

Chinese authorities set the yuan’s official fix, or “parity rate,” for the country’s tightly controlled currency 189 basis points lower to 6.8985 against the dollar. It’s the 12th day in a row Beijing has guided the yuan, amid suspicions Beijing is willing to let the currency, weaken to help exports. The yuan hasn’t been this weak since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2008. The currency’s decline has hastened since the election victory by Trump, who has vowed to brand China a currency manipulator as part of measures to counter what he says are unfair trade practices.

The dollar has also been rising against other major world currencies as investors increasingly factor in a Fed rate hike in December based on comments last week from U.S. central bank policymakers. The greenback’s nearly 7 percent again against the yen in the past week has helped boost Japan’s major exporters, which benefit because their overseas profits can be converted into more yen. Trump’s campaign promises to boost the U.S. economy by ramping up government spending and cutting red tape has also lifted the dollar but investors continue to wait for concrete details. Investors are trying to strike the right balance between positioning for a major dose of US fiscal stimulus and not getting too far committed, given the uncertainty surrounding what policies the new Trump Administration will implement.

Major U.S. stock indexes ended slightly lower on Friday. The Dow Jones industrial average slid 0.2 percent to 18,867.93. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 0.2 percent to 2,181.90. The Nasdaq composite touched a record high early on but then ended 0.2 percent lower at 5,321.51. The dollar meanwhile, climbed to 110.98 yen from 110.92 yen in late trading Friday. The euro edged up to $1.0599 from $1.0589.

Emini S&P (ES) Weekly Chart Analysis



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