WTI Crude Trade Plan (Read this section carefully for trade entry/exit suggestions)
Nov 18th 2016 Updated at 9:09 pm EDT on Nov 17th 2016
For Thu, Nov 17th, I’d written “…trend line resistance at 46.70~46.75. This area remains the big barrier for today. Initial support now moves to 45.50~45.40. Holding below these levels as we hover around it in the overnight session as I am writing this, re-targets 45.00 and then minor support at 44.80~44.70”. Ahead of the open, we trended toward this support at 45.50~45.40 and formed a base exactly here and then bounced to the 46.10 level and stopped. If you had the patience (which most of us day-traders including me, lack) we took out 45.40 eventually to target 45.00 and crest right at my lower level target published at the open of 44.88 to the tick!
For the upside forecast today, if we hold the initial support line at 44.80~44.70 we will run into a thin wall of resistance in the 45.45~45.50 area which acted as support in yesterday’s session. We run into a more fortified resistance about 10-ticks lower than yesterday in the range of 45.90~46.00. On Friday the only news affecting crude is the 1 pm BHI rig counts and if that were to unexpectedly appear bullish (which is unlikely), we will run into that 3 ½ month trend-line resistance in the 46.90~47.00 price region.
Initial support now moves to 44.80~44.70 holding at 44.91 as I write this in sideways trend. A break below 44.50 is bearish and targets only minor support at 43.85~43.80, we may hold here but in negative volume could possibly continue on to 43.50.
Cam Pivots for Nov 18th, 2016
R3=46.61 | R2=45.85 | R1=45.38 <-> S1=44.44 | S2=43.88 | S3=43.21
News & Analysis with a focus on Asia & US Inventory recap
Nov 18th 2016 Updated at 9:02 pm EDT on Nov 17th 2016
Oil prices fell in early trading on Friday as the strengthening U.S. dollar snuffed out rekindled hopes that OPEC might agree production cuts. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 53 cents from their last settlement, or 1.17 percent, at $44.89 a barrel at 9:50 pm EST. International Brent crude futures were down 46 cents, or 0.99 percent, at 46.03 a barrel. A stronger U.S. dollar makes oil, which is priced in dollars, more expensive to buyers in other currencies. With the dollar reigning supreme, Asia trading of crude should have a slightly heavy tone today as traders lighten up positioning into the weekend.
The U.S. dollar index reached a 13-1/2-year high on comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as she said the rate increase could happen “relatively soon”, indicating higher chances of the rate hike in December.
Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih’s optimistic comments on potential OPEC cuts came ahead of a meeting of key oil exporters’ officials scheduled to take place between 0530 GMT and 0730 GMT on Friday. The oil exporters’ representatives – from Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Russia, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Venezuela, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Nigeria – are meeting in Qatar’s capital Doha to discuss details of a potential deal on output cuts.
Despite hopes for an accord, Iran’s increasing output casts doubt on whether an OPEC deal will be able to clear a persistent global oil glut. Iran overtook Saudi Arabia as India’s top oil supplier for the first time in October, shipping data showed.
WTI Crude Daily Chart Analysis