Daily Crude Oil Analsys

Crude Oil Daily Trade Plan 11/17/2016

WTI Crude Trade Plan (Read this section carefully for trade entry/exit suggestions)

Nov 17th 2016 Updated at 9:02 pm EST on Nov 16th 2016

For Wed, Nov 16th, I’d written “…In the post close session and reacting to the API news we topped at 46.09 which is an area of resistance. A break higher we meet further important 3 ½- month trend line resistance at 46.75 and therefore form almost a wall of resistance on the up move.”.  We took out 45.40 with relative ease on the uptrend and came shy of overcoming the 45-handle during the pit session and eventually tagged 46.09 after the API news. We have since pulled back some to 45.52 as I write this.

For the upside forecast today, as expected and called yesterday, a short term buy signal triggered gains after a sharp pullback following the EIA report which had builds in Crude & product inventory. At this time, the Russian Oil Minister, Novak stated that the OPEC agreement in November was likely a strong reality. Crude initially topped exactly at resistance at 46.00~46.20 in the Globex & sold off to support at 45.20~45.10. On the second test followed by that Novak statement, we went half way to the 3.5 month trend line resistance at 46.70~46.75. This area remains the big barrier for today. Above here keeps bulls in control targeting 47.20 all the way up to 47.53. 

Initial support now moves to 45.50~45.40. Holding below these levels as we hover around it in the overnight session as I am writing this, re-targets 45.00 and then minor support at 44.80~44.70 which will likely not hold too well and in some decent short volume will test 4450~44.40 quickly. From here if the market participants really trade Crude as it is meant to be traded after such a bearish inventory report, we could be headed to 43.85~43.75, in continuation of pervious oversold conditions.

Cam Pivots for Nov 17th, 2016

R3=46.85 | R2=46.23 | R1=45.85 <-> S1=45.11 | S2=44.73 | S3=44.11

News & Analysis with a focus on Asia & US Inventory recap

Nov 17th 2016 Updated at 9:02 pm EST on Nov 16th 2016

U.S. Crude prices fell in Asia on Thursday as investors gear up for an expected make or break meeting at the end of the month on plans by OPEC to curb OPEC as inventory builds in the U.S. gain attention. Crude oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.26% to $45.45 a barrel. Brent oil for January delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London was last quoted at $46.46 a barrel, up 0.22%.

Overnight, oil prices added to losses during North American hours on Wednesday, falling to the lowest levels of the session after data showed that crude supplies rose the third straight week.

The EIA said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 5.3 million barrels in the week ended November 11. Market analysts’ expected a crude-stock gain of 1.5 million barrels, while the API  late Tuesday reported a supply increase of 3.7 million barrels.

Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery point for Nymex crude, increased by 691,000 barrels last week, the EIA said. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 490.3 million barrels as of last week, which the EIA considered to be “historically high levels for this time of year”. The report also showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels, compared to expectations for a decline of 0.4 million barrels. For distillate inventories including diesel, the EIA reported a gain of 0.3 million barrels.

Oil traders continued to weigh prospects of a coordinated production cut among major global oil producers. An informal meeting of OPEC members is likely to be convened in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Friday to build consensus over decisions taken by the group in September, an Algerian energy source said on Wednesday. Prices rallied nearly 6% on Tuesday amid reports that several OPEC members were engaged in a last-minute push to overcome divisions between the cartel’s biggest producers.

WTI Crude Daily Chart Analysis



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