Forecast on Index Futures

Emini S&P trade plan for day traders

Emini S&P Analysis & trade plan

Nov 16th 2016 Updated at 10:07 pm EDT on Nov 15th 2016

While prices remained relatively sideways to up earlier today with market participants expecting some sort of correction, but honestly I am not seeing one given the current conditions and earnings/guidance from companies supportive of strong performance and growth. We rose today to 2165 then ground up to 2169 and continuing that grind through 2175 on the way to 2182 before running out of steam and time to tag 2185, coming really close to the all time high in the 2189~2191.50 region.

On the downside look there is some sort of thin support at 2173~2171 and then reasonable support at 2165~2163. If we chisel down further, we would initially target 2155~2154 but and 2148 would present itself as another intraday buying opportunity.

For the upside forecast levels of the day it is obviously the important all time high 2189/2191.50. A close tonight above here likely signals the start of the next leg higher in the longer term bull trend and quickly targets 2199, 2205 & 2212 in that order.

Cam Pivots for Nov 15th, 2016 (not a whole lot different from yesterday)

R3=2198.25 | R2=2188.50 || R1=2183.75 | S1=2174.75 || S2=2170.00 | S3= 2162.50

News related to Asian Markets in the Globex Session

Nov 16th 2016 Updated at 10:07 pm EDT on Nov 15th 2016

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2 percent in early trade on Wednesday, bouncing back from a four-month low touched the previous day. Asian shares won the reprieve from a rally in Wall Street shares as the sell-off in global bonds and sharp gains in the dollar paused for now.

Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) rose 1.0 percent to nine-month high thanks to the fall in the yen against the dollar. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) rose 0.29 percent to a record high while the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.75 percent. The markets are having a bit of a pause at the moment. But people still want to do more of this trade. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries slipped to 2.230 percent from Monday’s 11-month high of 2.302 percent, although that is sharply above its levels around 1.86 percent before the election.

U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in October, pointing to sustained economic strength that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.

If we base our assumption on (Fed Chair Janet) Yellen’s gradualist approach, which can be roughly translated as two rate hikes per year, we could say that the market has already priced in tightening they could reasonably imagine at this point. But of course if Trump’s policies stoke inflation that cannot be contained by two rate hikes per year, the U.S. bond market could see big moves again.

Sharp gains in U.S. bond yields are seen as boosting the attraction of dollars. The dollar’s index against a basket of six major currencies (.DXY) (=USD) hit its highest level in almost a year. It stood at 100.16, standing just 0.3 percent below its 13-year peak hit in December last year. The euro (EUR=) traded at $1.0724, just above Monday’s $1.0709, its lowest level in almost a year.

The U.S. currency fetched 109.03 yen (JPY=), having hit 5 1/2-month high of 109.34 yen. Gold (XAU=) traded at $1,228.6 per ounce, not far from a 5 1/2-month low of $1,211.8 seen on Monday. The dollar’s strength has fanned fears investors could shift their funds to the U.S. from emerging markets. Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) managed to rise 0.3 percent on Tuesday after having fallen 7 percent over the previous four sessions.

Emini S&P (ES) Daily Chart Analysis

es-daily-11-16-16

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