Daily Crude Oil Analsys

Crude Oil (WTI) trade guidance for 11/16

WTI Crude Trade Plan (Read this section carefully for trade entry/exit suggestions)

Nov 16th 2016 Updated at 9:38 pm EDT on Nov 15th 2016

For Tue, Nov 15th, I’d written “…the strongest resistance I see in the Globex session is at 44.50~44.60. While keeping my eye for a high here I would be weary of shorts as unwinding from oversold can sometimes stretch well and therefore I would place my stops wider, say at about 44.90. Breaking above that 44.60 and closing above there and we could be headed to 45.05~45.20 and then on to 45.40.”.  We took out 45.40 with relative ease on the uptrend and came shy of overcoming the 45-handle during the pit session and eventually tagged 46.09 after the API news. We have since pulled back some to 45.52 as I write this.

For the upside forecast today, as expected and called yesterday, a short term buy signal triggered gains through strong resistance at 44.60 and while this level converted to support for the intraday we moved quickly to 44.95. In the post close session and reacting to the API news we topped at 46.09 which is an area of resistance. A break higher we meet further important 3 ½- month trend line resistance at 46.75 and therefore form almost a wall of resistance on the up move. If we continue higher on a positive EIA report, I would see us targeting 47.20 to close out the day.  

The inability of market participants to beat resistance at 46.10, would initially targets 45.50 to the downside and then good support in the 45.20~45.10 region. While unwinding from oversold, I would be watching for a bounce from here and if that did not come we could be headed to 44.85 initially and then excellent support at 44.60~44.50 areas and perhaps the best chance of a low for the day even on a bearish EIA report.

Cam Pivots for Nov 16th, 2016

R3=47.46 | R2=46.71 | R1=46.28 <-> S1=45.44 | S2=45.01 | S3=44.27

News & Analysis with a focus on Asia & US Inventory recap

Nov 16th 2016 Updated at 9:38 pm EDT on Nov 15th 2016

A larger than expected read of inventories by the API has caused WTI to scale down some in the Globex session. Crude inventories reported by API to be up 3.65 million barrels. Supplies at the Cushing, Oklahoma, and storage site saw the biggest increase since August, storing 1.13 million barrels more than last week. Distillates jumped by almost 3 million barrels after eight weeks of consistent draws. The only dip this week was gasoline inventories, which declined a measly 155,000 barrels – far less than the 1.1 million drop that industry insiders are predicting.

Overall, oil prices still saw a day of good returns. At the time of this article’s writing, WTI prices traded at a premium of 5.52 percent at $45.52, while Brent prices stood 5.55 percent higher at $46.75.

Last week – the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a build of 2.4 million barrels of crude in U.S. commercial inventories. The latest API report will either be confirmed or denied by tomorrow’s official EIA figures.

After the Republican win, benchmark oil prices quickly recovered the losses registered on voting day, and even started climbing up. Trump has vowed to make the United States energy independent by cutting off access to foreign sources of oil, while promising a go-ahead for the Keystone XL pipeline and new clean coal and shale projects.

WTI Crude Daily Chart Analysis

cl-daily-11-16-16

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