Daily Crude Oil Analsys

Crude Oil Trade Plan for 11/15/2016

WTI Crude Trade Plan (Read this section carefully for trade entry/exit suggestions)

Nov 15th 2016 Updated at 10:05 pm EDT on Nov 14th 2016

For Fri, Nov 11th, I’d written “In effect, in the Globex we failed to beat 43.60 thus keeping the pressure on to revisit the Friday low at 43.03 and in the morning, continuing lower will take us to that trendline support in the 42.60~42.50 region. If you are attempting longs here on the downward momentum, you will get stopped out with an aggressive stop so place them deeper and your long may reap some rewards as the day’s trading comes to close.”.  How did you like that call folks? We bottomed at 42.20 and have shot higher to 44.11 as I write this tonight.

For the upside forecast today, we have managed to hold the 7 month trend line support at 42.60~42.50 and therefore while unwinding from oversold situation here we do switch to a very short term buy signal. In the Globex we are holding above 43.60  and have taken out 44.10 and the strongest resistance I see in the Globex session is at 445.~44.60. While keeping my eye for a high here I would be weary of shorts as unwinding from oversold can sometimes stretch well and therefore I would place my stops wider, say at about 44.90. Breaking above that 44.60 and closing above there and we could be headed to 45.05~45.20 and then on to 45.40 while switching to a short-term buy signal into EIA Inventory day. 

Failure to beat 43.60 has been negated with this move up as I write this, but if we pullback during the day session below here, means we are likely to trade sideways as we try to build a short term base. This would mean we slide to initial support at 43.10~43.00. I already went through the trendline support for you now at 42.60~42.50. Closing below here although highly unlikely for tomorrow will confirm a longer term sell signal.

Cam Pivots for Nov 15th, 2016

R3=45.29 | R2=44.52 | R1=44.07 <-> S1=43.19 | S2=42.74 | S3=41.97

News & Analysis with a focus on Asia & US Inventory recap

Nov 15th 2016 Updated at 10:05 pm EDT on Nov 14th 2016

U.S. oil prices rose on Tuesday to move away from a nearly two-month low struck the day before, pushed higher by expectations of falling shale output and renewed optimism that OPEC will deliver on touted production cuts. U.S. crude futures for December delivery had climbed 84 cents, or 2 percent, to $44.16 a barrel by 10.26 pm EST. January Brent futures were up 74 cents, or 1.4 percent, at $45.17 per barrel. Prices were buoyed by expectations that U.S. shale oil production will in December fall to its lowest since April 2014 at 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Headlines around increasing OPEC production remained prevalent, although the focus switched to final diplomatic efforts from nations to agree to a production cut.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said it was imperative for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reach a consensus on activating a deal made in September to curb production, according to Algeria’s state news agency APS on Sunday. OPEC members are due to meet later this month.

Also supporting oil markets was news that Harold Hamm, chief executive at U.S. independent oil producer Continental Resources, could serve as energy secretary when Donald Trump becomes U.S. president. Hamm, if nominated would be the first U.S. energy secretary drawn directly from the industry, a move that would jolt environmental advocates but bolster Trump’s pro-drilling energy platform.

Elsewhere, Iraq will cut exports of Basra crude from its southern ports to 3.16 million bpd in December, compared with 3.24 million bpd in November. The allocated December volume will be the lowest in four months. Meanwhile, returning Libyan crude oil production could cap market gains. A tanker carrying the first freshly produced cargo of Libyan crude to be exported since the Ras Lanuf terminal reopened in September left the port on Monday. The reopening of the eastern ports has helped Libya’s national production double to around 600,000 bpd.

WTI Crude Daily Chart Analysis



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