Daily Crude Oil Analsys

Crude Oil analysis for Monday 11/14/16

WTI Crude Trade Plan (Read this section carefully for trade entry/exit suggestions)

Nov 14th 2016 Updated at 11:17 pm EDT on Nov 13th 2016

For Fri, Nov 11th, I’d written “holding the 44.20~44.10 area, we would possibly recover to 44.75~44.85 where there is initial resistance. . If we have the bears turn up in drones we could accelerate these oversold conditions and tag 44.10 initially and with some momentum leading into the pit session tag 43.84~43.80 relatively quickly. Look out here for the 200 day MA which sits in the 43.50~43.40 which we took out with relative ease this past Tuesday in the Globex session when the downside for all markets except Gold was the order of the evening! Considering that milestone support zones are areas for a bounce you may be looking to join the crowd here with longs but make sure you have your stops wide enough as that Tuesday Globex low of 43.07 is another mile marker”.  Well for Friday we halted the up move on that forecast exactly at 44.63 and for the down side that we predicted failed us by just 4 tics to 43.03. This is the task I perform in my reports with analyzing possible moves within the intraday!

For the upside forecast today, recognize the fact that we continue on oversold conditions today and going past the previous day’s low at 43.03 begs for the double-bottom located in the 4270~42.60 area and also forms an important region in the trendline support. We may see some buying here and if enough participation is pulled from the bulls, we will quickly scale back up to about 43.60 on the way to that earlier resistance number in the 44.20~44.25 area while seeking out the previous day’s high at 44.63. While very likely to run into trend exhaustion on this reversal we will run into excellent resistance if we moved any higher in the 45.20 area.

In the Globex session here in the evening, Crude pulled back about 6 cents to 43.34 from the Friday Globex close after trending higher at the open to about 43.59. In effect, in the Globex we failed to beat 43.60 thus keeping the pressure on to revisit the Friday low at 43.03 and in the morning, continuing lower will take us to that trendline support in the 42.60~42.50 region. If you are attempting longs here on the downward momentum, you will get stopped out with an aggressive stop so place them deeper and your long may reap some rewards as the day’s trading comes to close. If we do not come back above 42.60 at the 2:30 pm EST US close – it is a longer term sell signal and if I were you, I would exit my longs with a break-even or loss versus holding into the Globex session and into Tuesday.

Cam Pivots for Nov 14th, 2016

R3=44.02 | R2=43.66 | R1=43.55 <-> S1=43.01 | S2=42.80 | S3=42.44

WTI Crude Weeky Chart Analysis


News & Analysis with a focus on Asia & US Inventory recap

Nov 14th 2016 Updated at 10:17 pm EDT on Nov 13th 2016

Crude oil prices reversed course and fell in Asia on Monday as industrial output and retail sales data from China came in a tad weaker than expected. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in December fell 0.28% to $43.29 a barrel. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for January gained 0.34% to $44.70.

China said fixed asset investment for October rose 8.3%, beating the 8.2% rise seen year-on-year and industrial production gained 6.1%, below the expected 6.2% rise seen and retail sales increased 10.0%, below the 10.7% increase seen. Earlier, Japan reported third quarter GDP jumped 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and at a 2.2% pace year-on-year, handily beating expected gains of 0.2% and 0.9% respectively. To give you a picture of the inventory numbers that EIA reflects on their books, the recent inventory chart below shows below a pictorial representation of crude oil stocks in storage in the United States.


In addition, the refining activity combined with a tabular representation of the crude oil our nation imports from various sources is presented below, with average retail prices of gasoline last week:





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