Daily Crude Oil Analsys

Crude Oil trade plan for day traders

WTI Crude Trade Plan (Read this section carefully for trade entry/exit suggestions)

Nov 11th 2016 Updated at 9:58 pm EDT on Nov 10th 2016

For Thu, Nov 10th, I’d written “Failure to beat initial resistance at 45.20 means we attempt to hold initial support today in the 44.70~44.60 10-tic spread which isn’t firm support and aggressive selling would mean we take this down in a wave to about 44.35.”  We went as low as 44.30 around 4.30 pm after cash close of the equities earlier today while closing the pit hours session at 44.66. Markets sometimes tag to the predicted levels after the close on declining volume. I’ve seen this occur more times in the recent past.

Now, if we are successful until the pit open and into the cash open for the equities market to successfully hold the 44.20~44.10 area, we would possibly recover to 44.75~44.85 where there is initial resistance. Going higher than this point lacking any news would be a stretch in my opinion but if we do, we would run into a wall of resistance in the 45.30~45.40 area. Above here is unlikely but given the nature of markets on Friday and the fact that traders do not like being short into the weekend, you could see a change in sentiment to take us above 45.65 and the high made yesterday at 45.95. Any higher than this – I would be pulling out my shorting hat and sell the 46.30~46.40 price level with a very wide stop above knowing that it would perhaps make me some good money!

In the Globex session here in the evening, Crude eventually reached 44.25 in a session that lacked volume with the overall price outlook looking quite bleak despite oversold conditions. If we have the bears turn up in drones we could accelerate these oversold conditions and tag 44.10 initially and with some momentum leading into the pit session tag 43.84~43.80 relatively quickly. Look out here for the 200 day MA which sits in the 43.50~43.40 which we took out with relative ease this past Tuesday in the Globex session when the downside for all markets except Gold was the order of the evening! Considering that milestone support zones are areas for a bounce you may be looking to join the crowd here with longs but make sure you have your stops wide enough as that Tuesday Globex low of 43.07 is another mile marker that is now etched in stone. If we grab stops here on a very unlikely and bleak BHI Rig Counts report during the 1 pm timeframe tomorrow, rest assured that we would head then to the 7 month trendline support in the 42.60~4250 area. 

Cam Pivots for Nov 11th, 2016

R3=45.22 | R2=44.84 | R1=44.61 <-> S1=44.15 | S2=43.92 | S3=43.54

News & Analysis

Nov 11th 2016 Updated at 9:58 pm EDT on Nov 10th 2016

Oil prices turned lower on Thursday after the International Energy Agency warned that the market risks running another surplus in 2017 without an output cut from OPEC. U.S. crude slid to close at $44.66 at the close of the pit hour session at 2:30 pm ET. Brent crude was down $0.16 cents at the time of this writing to $45.66. In its monthly report, the IEA said OPEC crude output hit record high of 33.83 million barrels a day in October and warned that 2017 could be another year of relentless global supply growth.

Last week, Baker Hughes said the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by 9 to 450, resuming its rise following its first dip in roughly four months in the previous week. What the rig counts bring tomorrow isn’t going to be a major mover of prices for Crude in my opinion as we become oversold and tightly range bound. Take a look at the Cam pivots above to confirm that observation.

WTI Crude Daily Chart Analysis

cl-daily-11-11-16

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