Forecast on Index Futures

Emini S&P Daily Analysis

Emini S&P Analysis & trade plan

Nov 10th 2016 Updated at 10:54 pm EDT on Nov 9th 2016

For Monday Nov 8th – I’d offered the following analysis “Emini S&P is extremely volatile and as I write the low is 2030 and this has surpassed the .236 retracement support. Below 2030 will target 2026 then 2021. Below here I would look for 2011 AND THEN..holding 2055 will targets 2080 then 2088 & 2095. If we begin climbing back from the hole which we will eventually do we tag 2100 then 2013, 2121 then 2132. Continuing above here I would be looking for clear sailing into 2145 before the high of Globex session today at 2152. There is the important 9 month trendline resistance at 2161”. Take a look at the market action that evolved between the Globex yesterday earlier today and compare it with the analysis here and judge the importance of how you could’ve possibly benefited from having had this analysis delivered to you almost 10+ hours before the price action unfolded. I repeat this multiple times to my subscribers “It isn’t about being right or wrong as much as it is about making money”.

Emini S&P has that important 9-month trendline resistance at 2163 so holding below here appears less positive for today and we risk sliding not far down below to 2154 are and then some decent support in the 2146~2145 area which likely could hold the downside for the intraday initially on the first attempt. The best support for today however is in the 2134~2133 region and if I was trading this given that the market sentiment dictates going for the fence, I would try going long at this low intraday price print with a stop about 8 points below say at 2126. If you see volume driving to the downside and you get stopped out we may be headed to some minor support in the 2122 region and then excellent support 2114~2112.

If you happen to be short on that sell side story above at the trendline, make sure to have stops to reverse on good volume to longs at 2169 as it is likely that on continued buying tomorrow, we may be headed to 2173~2176 and even as far as 2181~2182 for a possible HOD print. Moves from here on out to the upside will likely test the peaks at 2189/2191.50. On Thursday or Friday during the intraday timeframe if we happen to close above here, it would be the beginning of another leg higher in the longer term bull trend. With that close expect us to achieve 2197~2199 leading to 2205 on the way to 2212.

Cam Pivots for Nov 10th, 2016

R3=2219.50 | R2=2192.25 || R1=2176.50 | S1=2145 || S2=2129.25 | S3= 2102.25

News related to ES in overseas trading during Globex Session

Nov 10th 2016 Updated at 10:54 pm EDT on Nov 9th 2016

The U.S. dollar carved out a staggering range, rebounding from as low as 101.19 yen all the way to 105.83, a move that will come as a huge relief to Japanese exporters. The Nikkei duly recouped all of Wednesday’s 5 percent loss and more to trade up 6 percent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.7 percent, while Australian stocks soared 3 percent in the largest daily gain since late 2011. Yields on U.S. Treasury 10-year notes reversed an initial plunge to 1.716 percent to reach 2.09 percent, the highest since January. The net rise of 21 basis points was also the largest daily increase since July 2013. Investors again revised the outlook for U.S. interest rates, with the probability of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve going from as low as 30 percent to as high as 80 percent.

The CBOE Volatility index, a gauge of investor anxiety, fell 23 percent and was on track for its biggest daily drop since late June. Traders said investors piled into U.S. financial and healthcare stocks on speculation a Trump administration would greatly ease regulations on the sectors. Ratings agency S&P Global later affirmed the AA+ rating of the United States, but noted uncertainty over the future path of government debt would prevent any upgrade.

There were also general concerns about whether Trump would follow through with threatened punitive tariffs on Chinese and Mexican exports, potentially triggering a global trade war. Mexico’s peso was still down 8.7 percent after touching a life-time low overnight. “Further out, Trump’s protectionist policies may prove another big step back in the gradual unwinding of goods globalization that has defined the past 30 years,” wrote analysts at Nomura in a note to clients. “Another important factor is that a Trump presidency would bring with it uncertainty that could undermine the Pax Americana, with all the benefits this has brought to the world in general and, perhaps, Asia in particular since 1945.”

Emini S&P (ES) Daily Chart Analysis

es-daily-11-10-16

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