Forecast on Index Futures

Emini S&P Daily Analysis for 11/9/2016

Emini S&P Analysis & trade plan

Nov 9th 2016 Updated at 10:34 pm EDT on Nov 8th 2016

For Monday Nov 7th – I’d offered the following analysis “Holding initial support in the 2122/21 area will take the market initially to 2129/30 easily before more prevalent intraday resistance in the 2134/36 zone. While tagging this price area, it would be premature to call it the “high for the day” as there is another layer of moving average resistance in the 2140~2142 area. If we begin ticking above here, (which in my opinion could only be after the cash close resulting from early election result volatility) the bulls would’ve conveniently won the show and on good volume we would head initially to minor resistance at 2147/48 on the path to cruising between 2152.50~2154”. Take a look at the market action that evolved earlier today and compare it with the analysis here and judge the importance of how you could’ve possibly benefited from having had this analysis delivered to you almost 10+ hours before the price action unfolded. I repeat this multiple times to my subscribers “It isn’t about being right or wrong as much as it is about making money”.

Emini S&P is extremely volatile and as I write the low is 2030 and this has surpassed the .236 retracement support. Below 2030 will target 2026 then 2021. Below here I would look for 2011 then the psychological barrier of 2000~1997.

On the final vote count if the incumbent party holds, and holding 2055 will targets 2080 then 2088 & 2095. If we begin climbing back from the hole which we will eventually do we tag 2100 then 2013, 2121 then 2132. Continuing above here I would be looking for clear sailing into 2145 before the high of Globex session today at 2152. There is the important 9 month trendline resistance at 2161 but a break higher then targets 2172, 2176 and eventually 2183.

Cam Pivots for Nov 9th, 2016

R3=2159 | R2=2122 || R1=2100 | S1=2076.5 || S2=2064.50 | S3= 2040.50

News related to the index futures

Nov 9th 2016 Updated at 10:34 pm EDT on Nov 8th 2016

U.S. stock index futures tumbled in choppy trade on Tuesday as tight races in key states including Florida and Ohio stoked bets that Republican Donald Trump could win the U.S. presidential election, spooking investors who have been counting on a victory by Democrat Hillary Clinton. Trump and Clinton were locked in close battles in several battleground states, although opinion polls gave Clinton an edge in the closing hours of the campaign.

Financial markets reacted violently to the preliminary results, with S&P futures rising as much as 0.8 percent and falling more than 3 percent at one point. A risk-off mood pervaded financial markets, driving down stock index futures and the Mexican peso, while gold and Treasuries prices rose.

“Donald Trump has stunned the consensus thinking, thus far,” said Peter Kenny, senior market strategist at Global Markets Advisory Group in New York. “Ahead in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina, in addition to being ahead in the electoral count and popular vote has triggered the onset of panic in global financial markets,” said Kenny. “Too early to call, obviously, but clearly markets were tentative today and seem to being growing increasingly concerned.”

Wall Street sees former Secretary of State Clinton as a status quo candidate who would lend stability to the markets, while Trump’s stances on foreign policy, trade and immigration are more conducive to volatility. At 9:43 p.m. EST, S&P 500 e-minis were down 93 points, with 819,267 contracts changing hands. Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 214 points, on volume of 142,108 contracts, and Dow e-minis were down 658 points, with 187,944 contracts changing hands. The Mexican peso slumped versus the U.S. dollar to near historic lows hit in September. It was last down more than 7 percent, near 19.7 to the dollar, after earlier touching 18.1475, its strongest level since Aug. 6. “The chance of a Republican sweep is now very real,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial in Waltham, Massachusetts.

“With a Republican House and Senate, Trump now has a great deal more policy freedom – and it remains to be seen what he might do with it. Markets have reacted in the past with a decline as Trump’s probability of victory rose, and that is very likely to happen (Wednesday) if he wins.”

Emini S&P (ES) Daily Chart Analysis

es-daily-11-09-16

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