Daily Crude Oil Analsys

WTI Crude Daily Trade Plan & Analysis

WTI Crude Trade Plan (Read this section carefully for trade entry/exit suggestions)

Nov 4th 2016 Updated at 10:49 pm EDT on Nov 3rd 2016

For Tuesday Nov 3rd , I’d written “If we are held below 45.80~45.90, the bear trend will likely prevail for this market yet another day and again painstakingly targeting initial support in the down move into the 45.40 price region followed by 45.00~44.95 almost like the day session today. If we break out lower, I would seek Fib levels I have spoken about earlier slowing down on the skid at perhaps 44.40~44.30”.  We capped off on prices in early morning action pre-market precisely at that inflection point at 45.90 and having tried this level a couple of times and failed and had you taken a short here the price dropped to all targets as far as 44.37 like a bull-eye forecast.

We are but severely oversold and as I’ve stated numerous times, an oversold pattern in a trending market could mean we remain oversold in accordance with the fundamentals for a while longer.  Initial resistance is now redrawn at 45.10 and if we were to trade higher in an apparent unwinding of oversold conditions we could aim at better resistance in the 45.50~45.60 area. For the upside forecast we may be struggling a bit here and any higher may take us to stronger resistance at yesterday’s initial resistance point of 45.90. Anything above here, I would sell especially if we begin to tag 46.10~46.20 range with a stop about 30-35 tics above in order to give your shorts room to breathe.

Inability by market bullish market participants to take out that initial resistance at 45.10 will suggest that we test yesterday’s low again in the 44.40~44.30 region. Unlike today, if we begin selling here with some solid red volume bars you may be reaching 43.80~43.75 area quickly. There is ample support here and we may turn around some as Friday’s aren’t days for retail or swing traders to be short. If you are attempting a long trade here – holding into the weekend may require you to have a wider stop as in the upside story above of about 30-35 tics.

Cam Pivots for Nov 4th, 2016

R3=45.82 | R2=45.29 | R1=44.97 <-> S1=44.33 | S2=44.01 | S3=43.48

Globex News & Analysis

Nov 4th 2016 Updated at 10:49 pm EDT on Nov 3rd 2016

 Oil prices rose mildly in Asian trading early Friday as investors looked ahead to U.S. rig count data and braced for potential volatile trade as the U.S. presidential vote looms next week. At this time of the year, uncertainty in the U.S. elections marred by rumors of potential sabotage of the infrastructure by rouge agencies determined to malign the electoral process buoys the commodities tied to the greenback.

Crude oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.10% to $44.76 a barrel as I write this report. Last week, oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by 2 to 441 in the previous week, marking the first weekly decline since June. Currently I’m seeing prices stabilizing, after plunging nearly 3% to five-week lows in day session after data showed that crude supplies in the U.S. rose by the most since records began last week.

Elsewhere, Brent oil for January delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London was last quoted at $46.46 a barrel amid mounting skepticism over the implementation of a planned deal by OPEC to limit production. The possibility that producers could walk away empty-handed from the November meeting looms large after Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Libya all signaled they might not take part in the proposed production cut deal. Russia’s unclear stance is also fueling uncertainty.

WTI Crude Daily Chart Analysis

cl-daily-11-4-16

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